Polish voters returned to the ballot box today for the decisive second round of a closely contested presidential election that could reshape the nation’s political landscape.
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| Karol Nawrocki, a candidate supported by Law and Justice in the elections for President of the Republic of Poland, participates in the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at ZEN.COM Expo in Jasionka, Poland, on May 27, 2025. (Photo by Klaudia Radecka/NurPhoto via Getty Images) |
The runoff features two starkly different candidates: Rafał Trzaskowski, the pro-European mayor of Warsaw supported by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist coalition, and Karol Nawrocki, a historian and former amateur boxer backed by the right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) party.
Though largely ceremonial, Poland’s presidency holds significant sway over foreign policy, national defense, and—crucially—the power to veto legislation. The current parliamentary government lacks the three-fifths majority needed to override presidential vetoes, making the outcome critical for Tusk’s ability to push forward his policy agenda.
Reform or Gridlock?
At the heart of the vote is whether the Tusk-led government can deliver on its key promises related to judicial reform, reproductive rights, and protections for the LGBTQ+ community. Trzaskowski’s victory would offer a smoother path for policy execution, while a Nawrocki win could result in continued legislative stalemate until the next parliamentary elections in 2027.
“This is a make-or-break moment for Tusk’s administration,” said Professor Aleks Szczerbiak of the University of Sussex. “If Nawrocki secures the presidency, it could paralyze the government, much like under former President Andrzej Duda—but potentially more intensely, as Nawrocki would come in with renewed public backing.”
Tightest Election Since 1989
With polls predicting a virtual tie, political analysts agree that the race is one of the most unpredictable in Poland’s modern democratic history. As few as 200,000 votes could determine the outcome, and both candidates have ramped up efforts to court undecided voters and those whose preferred candidates were eliminated in the first round.
Ben Stanley, political science professor at SWPS University in Warsaw, commented: “There are too many variables in play. Even minor shifts in turnout or voting patterns could swing the result.”
As mandated by Polish law, campaigning ceased on Friday night, ushering in a period of electoral silence. This final day before voting offered the public a moment to reflect on what has been a fiercely divisive and hard-fought campaign.
Trzaskowski: A Progressive Face with Establishment Ties
Rafał Trzaskowski, an Oxford-educated political veteran and current mayor of Warsaw since 2018, has positioned himself as a pragmatic reformer aligned with European democratic values. With prior experience in both the national government and European Parliament, he promises constructive collaboration with the legislature to advance progressive reforms.
However, Trzaskowski’s close affiliation with Donald Tusk—whose government has recently faced criticism over inflation and public trust—has complicated his appeal. He has also had to fend off accusations of elitism and claims regarding foreign-financed digital campaign ads.
Nawrocki: A New Face from the Right
Karol Nawrocki, relatively new to frontline politics, brings a different profile. Since 2021, he has served as head of the Institute of National Remembrance, a powerful state body that investigates historical crimes and promotes patriotic narratives. Though officially running as an independent, Nawrocki enjoys strong backing from the PiS party and has attracted international support from figures such as Donald Trump and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
Despite his fresh image, Nawrocki’s campaign has faced scrutiny. Media reports raised concerns about a controversial apartment deal and his participation in a violent hooligan brawl during his youth. His rhetoric toward Ukraine has also raised eyebrows, with Nawrocki openly opposing Kyiv’s potential NATO membership and referencing historical tensions between the two countries.
A Defining Moment for Poland’s Future
As polling stations close at 9 PM local time (8 PM BST), initial exit polls are expected shortly thereafter. But with such a razor-thin margin, official results may not be known until late into the night—or even the following day.
The outcome will not only determine Poland’s domestic trajectory but could also impact its stance within the European Union, its relationship with Ukraine, and the broader balance between progressive and populist forces in Eastern Europe.
