Warsaw, Poland — Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki has emerged victorious in Poland’s presidential runoff election, securing 50.89% of the national vote in a fiercely contested race against liberal rival Rafał Trzaskowski, the current mayor of Warsaw, who garnered 49.11%, according to the official results announced Monday.
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| WARSAW, POLAND - JUNE 01: Karol Nawrocki, presidential candidate of the Law and Justice Party (PiS), stands on stage with his wife Marta and their children as they gesture to supporters following the Polish presidential runoff election on June 01, 2025 in Warsaw, Poland (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images) |
The razor-thin margin reflects deep political polarization in Poland, a key NATO and European Union member on the bloc’s eastern frontier. The tense atmosphere was heightened by early exit polls on Sunday evening that initially indicated a potential win for Trzaskowski, before late vote counts reversed the trend in Nawrocki’s favor.
Nawrocki’s win signals a potential shift in Poland’s political trajectory, suggesting a return to nationalist and populist policies under a leader who has received backing from former U.S. President Donald Trump.
The President’s Role in Poland’s Political Landscape
Although the Polish prime minister holds primary executive power, the president wields significant influence—particularly in foreign policy and legislative affairs. The president has veto authority, which can serve as a critical check on the government.
Karol Nawrocki will take over from outgoing conservative President Andrzej Duda, whose second term ends on August 6. As per the Polish constitution, the presidency carries a five-year term, with the option of one re-election.
Challenges Ahead for Prime Minister Donald Tusk
Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who returned to power in late 2023 leading a diverse coalition, now faces a new political hurdle. His broad coalition, already struggling to advance reforms such as liberalizing abortion laws and legalizing same-sex civil partnerships, will now contend with a conservative president who is likely to veto progressive legislation.
President Duda had already blocked numerous initiatives that aimed to reverse judicial reforms criticized by the EU as undermining democratic standards. With Nawrocki assuming office, Tusk’s room to maneuver may narrow further—potentially jeopardizing promises made to both Polish voters and European partners.
Some analysts suggest that Tusk’s inability to deliver on key promises could threaten his government's stability ahead of the 2027 parliamentary elections, particularly if the opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party courts factions within his coalition.
Who Is Karol Nawrocki?
Karol Nawrocki, 42, is a political newcomer with a background as a historian and amateur boxer. He was handpicked by the Law and Justice party as a fresh figure untainted by past scandals that plagued the party’s 2015–2023 tenure.
Most recently, Nawrocki headed the Institute of National Remembrance (IPN), where he championed nationalist interpretations of Polish history and led the removal of Soviet-era monuments. His confrontational stance toward Russia led to his placement on a Russian wanted list, according to local media.
Supporters see Nawrocki as a defender of traditional Polish values and national identity, appealing to conservative voters skeptical of progressive social movements. His popularity among right-leaning Poles remained strong despite past controversies, including alleged links to criminal circles and involvement in a street altercation—claims he denies or downplays as politically motivated.
Trump’s Endorsement and U.S. Influence
Former U.S. President Donald Trump publicly endorsed Nawrocki, hosting him at the White House just weeks before the election. The Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) also held its inaugural Polish gathering in support of Nawrocki, with key Trump ally and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem rallying voters in his favor.
With over 10,000 U.S. troops stationed in Poland, Nawrocki’s presidency could further strengthen military cooperation with the U.S. under a Trump-led administration, should Trump win reelection in 2024.
Nawrocki’s rhetoric has mirrored Trump’s on several fronts. He has pledged continued support for Ukraine but criticized Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for allegedly exploiting international allies. He also vowed to prioritize Polish citizens in access to public services like healthcare and education—comments that sparked debate over the country’s treatment of Ukrainian refugees.
Conclusion
Karol Nawrocki’s victory ushers in a new chapter in Polish politics—one likely marked by nationalist policies, closer ties to the American right, and a challenging legislative environment for the current centrist government. As Poland navigates internal divisions and external geopolitical pressures, the world will be closely watching Nawrocki’s next moves as president.
